Financial forecasting

Calculation

The FO calculation assumes that each month's expenditure for a practice is in line with the national trend for proportionate spend. This means it's assumed that a practice's cumulative spend to date is the percentage of total spend defined by the national trend. The percentages used are updated each year to reflect the latest trend information.

The FO formula for an existing practice is:

(Cumulative actual cost x 100) ÷ cumulative proportionate spend figure

The FO will not be shown for the first 2 months of the financial year (relating to April and May dispensing) due to the volatility of forecasting over the beginning of the year. The first month that this will be shown, for each financial year, will be for June dispensing.

The profile received in July 2023 will be used to calculate forecast out-turns for 2023 to 2024 prescriptions. 

The profile:

• excludes drugs costs met centrally
• includes practice, out of hours, and community nurse prescribing
• is subject to change

The method used to calculate the forecast of primary care prescribing expenditure:

• considers monthly expenditure data from the last five years
• removes the effect of policies (reductions due to PPRS and Category M) from last year's expenditure
• looks at the effect of the number of dispensing days, the position of the month in the year and the year of expenditure

This is collated to predict the monthly expenditure for this year.

The percentage is then applied to data from the monthly Prescribing Monitoring Document.

Revision to the in-year forecast of primary care prescribing expenditure

The profile for 2023 to 2024 is subject to change and is based on the best information available at the time. The profiles will be revised accordingly as further information becomes available. 

The Department of Health and Social Care (DHSC) receive a number of queries about our data that we're unable to answer, for example, the treatment of price concessions.

These queries should be directed to those responsible for the data collection or the relevant SICBL policy contact in the NHS.

Forecast outturn 2023-24 (Word: 15KB)Forecast outturn 2022-23 (Word: 14KB)Forecast outturn 2021-22 - Updated (Word: 16KB)Forecast outturn 2021-22 (Word: 20KB)Forecast outturn 2020-21 Revised January 21(Word: 24KB)Forecast outturn 2020-21 (Word: 14KB)Forecast turnout 2019-20 update (Word: 20KB) Forecast turnout September 2019 (Word: 17KB)Forecast turnout April 2019 (Word: 25KB)Forecast turnout April 2018 (Word: 18KB)Forecast turnout April 2017 (Word: 18KB)Forecast turnout November 2016 (Word: 18KB)Forecast turnout April 2016 (Word: 18KB)Forecast turnout November 2015 (Word: 18KB)Forecast turnout April 2015 (Word: 47KB)Forecast turnout December 2014 (Word: 46KB)Forecast turnout October 2014 (Word: 45KB)Forecast turnout April 2014 (Word: 44KB)Forecast turnout December 2013 (Word: 45KB)Forecast turnout November 2013 (Word: 44KB)Forecast turnout April 2013 (Word: 44KB)Forecast turnout August 2012 (Word: 44KB)Forecast turnout April 2012 (Word: 44KB)Forecast turnout August 2011 (Word: 43KB)Forecast turnout April 2011 (Word: 42KB)Forecast turnout September 2010 (Word: 42KB)Forecast turnout April 2010 (Word: 39KB)

Produced by the Department of Health and Social Care (DHSC), the forecast template is intended to support PCOs with their primary care drug spend planning. The output doesn’t state the position of ourselves or DHSC.

View the forecast template 2024 to 2025 (Excel: 58KB)

​​The template uses 5 years of historic data to calculate a forecast spend for each month of the current financial year, taking into consideration:  

• the number of dispensing days
• and the month in the year (seasonality)

It can also make adjustments for any policies and local initiatives that will affect prescribing spend.

The template allows organisations to input their own historical data and policy changes and local initiatives.

This forecasting methodology uses similar background data as the forecast out-turn provided in the Prescribing Monitoring Documents, however the forecasts are based upon local data rather than national level profiles applied to local data.

SICBL Prescribing Model Full Write Up (Word: 908KB)SICBL Prescribing Model Overview (Word: 36KB)

View the number of dispensing days by financial year (Excel: 8KB)

It includes the number of dispensing days per month for the current, future and the previous three financial years.

Dispensing days excludes Sundays and bank holidays.

Prior to April 2024, the National Average Discount Percentage was used to calculate Actual Cost shown in NHS Prescription Services prescribing and financial reports.

It is calculated by: the sum of all discounts ÷ the sum of all basic price x 100.

From April 2024 onwards, the National Average Discount Percentage (NADP) will no longer be used to calculate the Actual Cost, shown in NHS Prescription Services prescribing and financial reports, however, the NADP will continue to be published for forecasting purposes.

2024 to 2025

2023 to 2024

​​​​​​2022 to 2023

2021 to 2022

2020 to 2021

2019 to 2020

2018 to 2019

2017 to 2018

2016 to 2017

2015 to 2016

2014 to 2015